Departmental Bulletin Paper バスケットボールのゲームにおける勝者と敗者に分類した ショット状況とショット成功率の関連

八板, 昭仁  ,  青柳, 領  ,  大山, 泰史  ,  川面, 剛

This study investigated the relationship between game outcomes and shot conditions byoperationally defining the difficulty of shots from a statistical viewpoint. The subjects were nationwideelite female university basketball players. Nine shooting conditions for all shots performed in 12 gamesafter the quarter finals of the 66th All-Japan Collegiate Basketball Championship were observed andchecked, specifically 1) remaining seconds of the shot clock, 2) shooting methods, 3) shooting area, 4)shooting direction, 5) play leading to a shot, 6) number of dribbles, 7) actions of players before a shot,8) condition of offensive players facing defensive players, and 9) block shots. Logistic regression analysiswas conducted with the shot outcomes as the dependent variable and the seven items related to theshots as independent variables.The “difficulty of a shot” was operationally defined as the residual between the estimate from theregressions and the actual outcome. The relationship between the prediction computed of shots for eachteam and the rate of successful shots were investigated after categorizing the teams by wins and losses.Based on regression coefficients, the average prediction computed of all shots was 0.397 (SD=0.151).The prediction computed of all shots by wins and losses was 0.396 (SD=0.153) for winning teams and0.398 (SD=0.149) for losing teams. Moreover, the total rate of successful shots was 39.8%, which ofwinning teams was 41.2%, and that of losing teams 38.2%. No significant difference was detected inthe prediction computed of a shot and the success rate of shots. Significant relationship between theprediction computed of shots and the success rate of shots was observed since the correlation coefficientwas 0.592 for winning teams.

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