学術雑誌論文 Impacts of future climate change on the carbon budget of northern high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems: An analysis using ISI-MIP data

10 ( 3 )  , pp.346 - 355 , 2016-09
ISSN:18739652
内容記述
This paper assesses future changes in the carbon budgets of northern terrestrial ecosystems (above 60°N) using data from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). By analyzing simulations from seven biome models driven by five climate scenarios under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), the range of responses and their uncertainty in the 21st century was evaluated. The biome models consistently simulated a gradual increase in vegetation productivity driven by an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and a longer growing period. By the 2090s, most simulations showed average net carbon uptake into the northern terrestrial ecosystems of +27 Pg C for RCP2.6 and +48 Pg C for RCP8.5. These estimates showed a wide range of variability among simulations, especially for soil carbon stocks. Even under low greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP2.6), most simulations indicated that vegetation productivity and biomass would change by more than 10%, implying that it will be difficult to completely prevent climatic impacts in northern regions. Simulated spatial patterns and seasonality in the carbon budget can be used to identify sensitive areas and seasons, allowing for improved monitoring. Further research combining observations and modeling will be required to reduce estimation uncertainty and devise ecosystem management options.
北緯60度以北の陸域生態系における将来の炭素収支変化を、マルチセクター影響評価モデル相互比較プロジェクト(ISI-MIP)のデータを用いて調べた。2種類の排出パスと5種類の気候モデル予測をシナリオとして用いた、7種類の生態系モデルによるシミュレーション結果を解析し、応答とその不確実性を評価した。いずれのシナリオでも、大気CO2増加と温暖化により植生バイオマスは21世紀末まで漸増しており、生態系は通算して正味炭素吸収源となることが示唆された。しかし、推定間の差異は大きく、特に土壌炭素の変化でばらつきが顕著であった。多数の推定結果を基に、重要な変化が生じる可能性が高い領域や時期を絞り込むなど観測計画の立案や対策に有効な予測を示した。

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