Departmental Bulletin Paper Chaotic Itinerancy in Regional Business Cycle Synchronization

Onozaki, Tamotsu  ,  Esashi, Kunihiko  ,  Saiki, Yoshitaka  ,  Sato, Yuzuru

Chaotic itinerancy is complex behavior in high-dimensional dynamical systems characterized by itinerant motion among many different ordered states through chaotic transition. In this study, we robustly observe this behavior in a model of regional business cycles, in which all regions are homogeneous and connected through producers' adaptive behavior based on global information. Although producers adjust their output quite slowly toward the average level announced by the government, regional business cycles begin to synchronize due to the entrainment effect. Moreover, the economy is more likely to exhibit chaotic itinerancy when the producers emphasize the expected-profit-maximization and when they adjust their expectations more slowly toward the average. It is also clarified that behind the dynamics of chaotic itinerancy exist cycles among periodic orbits with different unstable directions, which is called unstable dimension variability.

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