Departmental Bulletin Paper Two Business Cycles within the Industrial Cycle of 1991-2009:A Marxist Analysis of the Real Economic Ground of the 2008 Financial Crisis

平野 健

There were two bubble economies recently: IT bubble in the last-1990s and housing bubble in the 2000s. The result of the former was the mild recession in 2001, but the one of the latter was the severe crisis in 2008-09. Why were they so different? Behind phenomenon of two business cycles, there was one industrial cycle in the real economy in 1991-2009. After WWII,with interventions by the government, U.S. economy have prevented from crises. That has delayed the excess capital adjustments and prolonged the length of industrial cycles. There were two industrial cycles after 1960 at least: the cycles of 1960-1990 and 1991-today. The 2000s was the stagnant phase of the industrial cycle after 1991. For that reason, the bankers had to use CDOs and take risks by themselves in order to generate bubble. That was the real economic ground of the 2008 financial crisis.

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