Departmental Bulletin Paper 2015年カナダ連邦選挙の分析

陶山, 宣明||スヤマ, ノブアキ ||Suyama, Nobuaki

27p.77 , 2016-03 , 帝京平成大学
In the most recent election for the House of Commons, the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau scored a resounding victory over the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper. Harper had held leadership over Canada for nearly a decade. When the campaign started, the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party (NDP), and the Liberals seemed to be in a tight race. It was not an unrealistic scenario that Canada would have the first-ever NDP government. However, as time went by, the popular support for the NDP went on the wane with the Tories remaining in the last-stage battle with the Grits. In the home stretch, Trudeau successfully outdistanced Harper. The Liberals now occupy 184 seats in the lower house, which clearly goes over the majority line. The Greens kept the leader's seat on Vancouver Island. The balance theory and the bandwagon theory offer little to explain the Liberals' win in Ottawa. It was indeed the young, good-looking Trudeau that appealed to the Canadian voters to change the governing party but there are more to explain the outcome of the election. The Liberals were able to expand their range of support rightward and leftward to snatch the votes from the Conservatives and the NDP. The swaying pledges were mainly domestic policy, mixed subtly with foreign policy. Trudeau's Liberal Party was able to persuade nearly 40 percent of the sensible Canadian voters of an alternative way Canada should move forward from the predecessor.

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