Departmental Bulletin Paper 誰に扉を開けばいいのか?:Open the Door ―人口減少・少子高齢化への政策選択の効果分析―

清水, 千弘  ,  川村, 康人  ,  西村, 清彦  ,  Chihiro, Shimizu  ,  Yasuhito, Kawamura  ,  Kiyohiko, Nishimura

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What kinds of policies should Japan adopt to address its declining population and aging society? Based on the housing market, this paper measures the impact that the countryʼs declining population and aging society will have on its economic system with the aim of empirically clarifying the effects of various policies. Specifically, it forecasts the decline in housing asset prices brought about by the declining population and aging society through 2040 and estimates the effects of three policies designed to suppress this decline or “asset meltdown”: a) accepting more immigrants, b) raising the retirement age, and c) promoting the social advancement of women. The results obtained show that promoting the social advancement of women will not have a significant effect despite involving considerable social costs, while in terms of immigration, it will not be possible to stave off the decline in asset prices unless 40 million working-age people are brought in by 2040. With regard to raising the retirement age, the results make clear that it would be necessary to increase it to 75. The findings of this paper offer numerous suggestions not only for Japan but also for European and Asian countries whose societies are expected to age further in the future.
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