Departmental Bulletin Paper Augmented Cohort Analysis : A Practical Way to Predict Future At-home Consumption of Selected Food Products

Mori, Hiroshi  ,  Saegusa, Yoshiharu  ,  Tanaka, Masamitsu

49 ( 3 )  , pp.111 - 135 , 2015-03-16 , 専修大学経済学会
Evidence shows that important age and cohort effects exist in at-home consumption of most food products in present-day Japan. Individual consumption of rice, fish, meat and vegetables by age over the last three decades from 1980 to 2013 was derived from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey classified by age groups of household head. Augmented cohort models decomposed cohort tables into age, cohort and period effects along with demand elasticities of prices and income. Age and cohort effects thus determined were synthesized to predict consumption by age to 2015 and 2020, on the assumption that the economic conditions would stay the same as in 2009−11. These predictions by age, when combined with the projected population age structure, can be aggregated into total at-home consumption.

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