Departmental Bulletin Paper New Parties' Effects on the Instability of Coalition Governments in East-Central Europe

NAKADA-AMIYA, Mizuho  ,  NARIHIRO, Takashi

47pp.1 - 33 , 2015-03-31 , 明治学院大学国際学部
Previous studies on new political parties have assumed that they change or disrupt the functioning of the party system and coalition politics by creating high electoral volatility. Five successful new parties in three elections analyzed in this article failed to validate these assumptions. The article presents preliminary analysis of the 22 new political parties with a view to finding the characteristic new party type in East-Central Europe, which is typically established for electoral success and often joins the governing coalition just after the election. Canonical discriminant analysis (Knutsen 1989) showed that the five new parties that fell into this category changed neither party competition structures, nor coalition politics. Contrary to the general assumption, new parties of this type do not cause instability in the party system or affect coalition politics directly. However, as indirect outcomes, these parties may cause unclear ex-post accountability, voter disappointment and instability of coalition government.

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