Presentation Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and its link with the Guinea Dome

土井, 威志  ,  STORTO, Andrea  ,  RICHTER, Ingo  ,  BEHERA, Swadhin  ,  山形, 俊男  ,  DOI, Takeshi  ,  STORTO, Andrea  ,  RICHTER, Ingo  ,  BEHERA, Swadhin  ,  YAMAGATA , Toshio

2017-05-24
Description
Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Mode is investigated by use of the SINTEX-F climate model from the viewpoint of the preconditioning role of the Guinea Dome. The 2009 strong negative event is successfully predicted a few months ahead when the model is initialized using a three-dimensional variational ocean data assimilation (3DVAR) method. However, nudging the sea surface temperature (SST) only for the initialization fails to predict the event. It is shown that the mixed-layer depth in the Guinea Dome region is unrealistically deep in the latter. Denying even one ocean mooring array data at 12°N, 23°W in the 3DVAR initialization clearly demonstrates that monitoring the Guinea Dome is very important for predicting the Atlantic Meridional Mode.
AOS17-03口頭発表 / JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017 (2017年5月20日~5月25日 幕張メッセ国際会議場)
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http://www.jamstec.go.jp/jdb/ronbun/Ks00052650.pdf

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