Conference Paper How do herders respond to drought? : A long-distant movement of people and livestock in Mongolia Effect of drought on herders’ movement in Mongolian rangeland

柿沼, 薫  ,  Kakinuma, Kaoru  ,  鼎, 信次郎  ,  Kanae, Shinjiro

Coping with droughts are one of the most important issues in arid and semi-aridregions. Mongolia, where are located in central Asia, are concerned the increase ofdroughts in the future (IPCC 2014). Mongolia has long history of livestock grazing.Herders have developed the mobile grazing systems to use spatiotemporal variablevegetation. Especially, they often take a rapid and long-distant movement to avoiddrought condition (“otor” in Mongolia). The movement is a main adaptation measureto droughts for herders (Middleton et al. 2015), and it would be a key to examine theeffect of climate change on society and ecosystems in Mongolia. However there arefew knowledge about the long-distant movement of herders and livestock. Forexample we do not know how climatic, ecological and economic condition affectherders’ long-distant movement. To discuss the effect of drought on Mongolianrangeland, we investigated the pattern of herders’ long-distant movement.Firstly, in order to examine the effect of economic condition on a long-distantmovement, we carried out interview to local herders (n=55) in Mandalgobi, Mongolia.We asked them about their owned livestock number, mobile distance and resourceutilization during a drought. To classify pastoralists based on their herding strategy,we performed hierarchical clustering analysis that based on interview data. Clusteringanalysis categorized herders into two groups; large herds and small herds. Wecompared mobile distances of two groups, and result showed herders with large herdstend to take a long-distant movement during a drought (Kakinuma et al. 2014).Secondly, to examine relationship between climatic variability and herders’ longdistantmovement, we asked the Ministry of Industry and Agriculture in Mongoliaabout contracts among prefectures. The contract is to receive herders who came fromother prefectures, and supports herders’ long-distant movement. Data showed thatherders in high variable precipitation areas (southern area) take a long-distantmovement more frequency than herders in low variable precipitation areas (northernarea) during 2009-2014. Finally, we investigated herders’ population distribution byusing statistical data of herders’ household that are provided by statistical office ofMongolia. Then we asked some prefectures about the number of household that camefrom other prefectures during 2009-2014. Results showed that herders in southern,western areas tend to move to northern, eastern areas where have much vegetation,and a good access to capital. The result suggested that not only urbanization but alsoa few vegetation may cause a permanent long-distant movement of herders.Our results suggested that herders’ long-distant movement would be affected by theireconomic conditions, precipitation variability and vegetation conditions. Especially,herders in southern, western areas tend to move to northern, eastern areas. Thereforeclimate changes (i.e. increase of drought frequency) would serve incentive to herders’long-distant movement, and would affect a distribution of population in Mongolia

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