Conference Paper Climate change may affect human migration in Mongolia

柿沼, 薫  ,  Kakinuma, Kaoru  ,  Puma, Michael Joseph  ,  Puma, Michael Joseph  ,  鼎, 信次郎  ,  Kanae, Shinjiro

Assessments of risks to climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. It has become apparent that migration has a central role in adaptation measures for climate changes. Migration creates risk as well as benefits for migrants and sending and receiving regions. However, multiple drivers affect migration and it is difficult to estimate patterns of human migration under climate changes. Here we examined effects of climatic factors (such as temperature and precipitation in summer and winter season) on peoples’ migration in Mongolia.Mongolia, where is located in central Asia, has a long history of pastoralism. There are concerned the increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation in the future. We used migration data and climate data for all of prefectures during 1983-2015. We demonstrated generalized linear model and used migration data as a response variable, climate data as explanatory variables.As a result, some climatic conditions (few summer precipitation and hot temperature) affected people’s migration at western and southern part of Mongolia. These areas were reported that heat waves have been increased since 1990. Such climatic conditions may become trigger to human migration. We showed empirical evidences that climatic factors may affect migration in some regions. These results suggested that future climate changes may cause people’s migration in Mongolia.

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