Departmental Bulletin Paper Population Outflow from Earthquake-Stricken Areas and Resindent-led Reconstruction: A Theoretical Analysis

Matsuyama, Jun  ,  Arai, Souich

61 ( 1 )  , pp.31 - 56 , 2015-07 , 富山大学経済学部
We build a cultural transmission model to consider an effective measure for mitigating population outflow from areas affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. In an economy with firms and two heterogeneous agents (residents within earthquake stricken areas and around these areas), when the stable interior steady state exists in our system, first we analyze how subsidies to firms affect the steady state population share for residents in earthquake stricken areas. Depending on conditions, the policy may either succeed (an increase in the population share compared to the case with no policy) or fail (a decrease in the share). Second, even if the subsidy policy fails, resident-led reconstruction efforts could potentially increase the steady state population share for residents when subsidy is simultaneously given. From the analysis, we find that resident-led reconstruction efforts can be an effective measure to mitigate the population outflow in earthquake stricken areas.

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