6902018-02 , Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
This paper explores how the British exit (Brexit) from the European Union (EU) potentially affects the United Kingdom (UK) economy and the production patterns of multinational enterprises that choose the UK as either a destination market or a gateway to the EU market. Utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model, simulation analysis reveals the following points: (1) Brexit will encourage firms in both the EU and the UK to change strategies to incorporate more horizontal-type affiliates so that Brexit will not reduce inward foreign direct investment (FDI) to the UK as long as the UK is attractive as a final market; and (2) In contrast, export-platforms serving the EU market owned by firms in non-EU countries will completely withdraw by the time Brexit is completed. To cover losses from the reduction in the number of export-platforms, efforts to enhance the attractiveness of the UK as a destination market would be a solution in the short-run, while seeking new economic partnership programs with both EU and non-EU countries will work in the long-run.
JEL:F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade JEL:F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies • Fragmentation JEL:F15 - Economic Integration JEL:F23 - Multinational Firms • International Business Brexit Foreign direct investment Multinational enterprise Export-platform Knowledge-capital model Great Britain Europe International business enterprises Foreign investments
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
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