6402017-04 , Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
This paper focuses on the direct impact of avian influenza outbreaks and the impact of the consequent nontariff measures on the international poultry trade in the Global Value Chain Context. Using monthly export data regarding China and its 122 poultry importing countries, a random-effect gravity model is adopted. The research analysis distinguishes between “agri-food goods” (mostly uncooked poultry products) and “processed goods” (mostly cooked poultry products) to understand the trade in global value chain. The results show that domestic avian influenza outbreaks have a large and significant negative impact on a country’s poultry imports compared with such outbreaks in exporting countries. Moreover, nontariff measures induced by avian influenza reduce the uncooked poultry trade but increase the cooked poultry trade temporarily. The results also imply that developing countries that attempt to participate in the global agri-food value chain to access developed countries’ markets should increase and enhance processed food production for more-value adding and competiveness.