6012016-06-01 , Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.
JEL:C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications JEL:L83 - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism JEL:Z32 - Tourism and Development Tourism Econometric model Tourism demand Visitor arrivals Forecasting VAR Cambodia
Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO)
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