Research Paper 平均限界税率をもちいた日本経済のマクロ政策分析

宮崎, 憲治

pp.1 - 5 , 2015-06
研究成果の概要 (和文) : この研究プロジェクトでは, 平均限界税率や景気循環会計をもちいていくつかの論文を生み出してきた. 平均限界税率は異なる所得をもつ経済主体の限界税率の加重平均であり, 単なる平均税率に比べマクロ分析ではより適切な税率である. 景気循環会計は実質GNPや消費や投資や労働供給などの経済変数に影響を与える要因を4つのウェッジに分解する. これらのウェッジによって経済の配分が正確に再現可能になる. 最も最近の論文では, 景気循環会計をもちいて日露戦争期における財政支出乗数を推計した. 短期において0.7となり長期において1になることを示した.
研究成果の概要 (英文) : This research project has yielded several papers using average marginal tax rates and business cycle accounting. The average marginal tax rate, which is a weighted average of the marginal tax rates of economic agents with different incomes, is more appropriate as an effective tax rate for macroeconomic analysis than is the average tax rate, which is simply the ratio of total tax revenues to national income. Business cycle accounting separates factors that affect economic variables (real GNP, consumption, investment, and labor supply) into four wedges: efficiency, labor, investment, and government consumption. These wedges replicate exactly the allocation in the economy. Using business cycle accounting, the most recent paper of ours estimates the fiscal multiplier in Japan during the Russo-Japanese War, 1904-1905. we estimate the value of the fiscal multiplier to be about 0.7 in the short run and about one in the long run.

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