Departmental Bulletin Paper 日本I-O 表による生産側実質GDP のダブルデフレーション法とシングルデフレーション法の検証《論文》

李, 潔

145pp.1 - 11 , 2015-8 , 埼玉大学経済学会
1. 実質付加価値のアプローチ (1)価格デフレーション法と数量外挿法 (2)実質付加価値のアプローチ2. ダブルデフレーション法とシングルデフレーション法の関係3. 日本の固定価格表示接続産業連関表による検証 (1)1960 ─ 70 年高度経済成長期による比較 (2)1970 ─ 80 年安定経済成長期による比較 (3)1980 ─ 90 年安定成長期による比較 (4)1990 ─ 2000 年低成長期による比較4. おわりに
 As a quantitative measure of value added, the double deflation method needs detailed input-output tables and precise price indices. In SNA, an approach using single deflation has been recommended as an alternative. The former approach is applied in Japan, the latter in China. First, using an input-output framework, this paper describes how the two methods diverge due to the different changes in price between intermediate goods industries and final goods industries. It shows that estimates using single deflation are lower when prices in intermediate goods industries experience relatively large increases, and are higher when the opposite is the case. Using Japan’s 1960-1970-1980-1990-2000 input-output tables on fixed prices, this paper then makes a detailed comparison of the two methods. The comparison shows that, except during the 1970s oil shock, alongside economic growth, the prices in Japan’s intermediate goods industries may have fallen somewhat, while the prices in its final goods industries rose. Therefore, a nation’s growth rate, when measured using the single deflation method, is overestimated.

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