20 , 2016-09-12 , 金沢大学大学院人間社会環境研究科 = Graduate School of Human and Socio-Enviromental Studies Kanazawa University
Analyses using national aggregate data indicate that in the Japanese national elections, a personal vote produces a consistency vote, while a party vote produces a swing vote.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze through survey research whether a personal vote produces a consistency or swing vote. The first hypothesis in this paper is that a positive candidate factor for the LDP candidate can prevent those who voted for the LDP in the previous election from swinging their votes. The second hypothesis is that a positive candidate factor for the LDP candidate can change non-LDP voters in the previous election into LDP voters. The data was gathered from voters living in Kanazawa city, Ishikawa prefecture.
The analysis confirmed the first hypothesis as valid, showing that a personal vote produces a consistency vote. The second hypothesis is also valid; however, a personal vote produces a consistency rather than swing vote. Therefore, this research has shown that a personal vote produces a consistency vote even in an analysis based on survey research.