Technical Report Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-1874

Saito, Osamu  ,  Takashima, Masanori

2015-05 , Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University
This version: 26 May 2015
This paper proposes a new methodology of estimating non-primary sector output shares in early modern growth. By using data from proto-industrial Japan, the paper demonstrates, first, that not just the rate of urbanisation but population density would also work as another predictor of the secondary and tertiary sectoral shares when growth was rural-centred; and second, that regional panel data should be constructed from earliest possible sets of modern data to estimate the coefficients of these two variables on the sectoral shares. In order to apply the coefficients derived from modern data for the calculation of pre-modern estimates, regional panel data are far superior to simple time-series statistics. The paper presents new per-capita GDP estimates thus computed for Japan 1600-1874, together with a brief comparison with previous estimates, especially those by Angus Maddison.

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