35 , 2017-11-06 , Osaka School of International Public Policy
Vietnam is on the way to undertake deeper trade liberalisation, including both tariff reductions and reforms in other trade-related areas.In this paper, the impacts of Vietnam’s trade reform on its economic welfare and sectoral adjustments are assessed using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We consider the effects of goods and services trade liberalisation, an increase in foreign direct investment inflows, a reduction in administrative and technical barriers to trade, and a reduction in the trade and transport margins. When all effects are combined, Vietnam’s economic welfare is projected to increase by 8.4 percent in 2020 compared with the baseline. Many manufacturing sectors would expand, whereas agricultural, minerals and fuel sectors would contract. The output expansion is most significant in the textiles and wearing apparel sectors.