||トランプ政権登場の米中台関係への影響 : 戦略的トライアングル理論による分析
The Impact of Trump Politics on US-China-Taiwan Relations : Analysis by Strategic Triangle Theory
トランプ セイケン トウジョウ ノ ベイチュウタイ カンケイ ヘ ノ エイキョウ センリャクテキ トライアングル リロン ニ ヨル ブンセキ
成井, 達也 ,
Narii, Tatsuyaナリイ, タツヤ
106 , 2017-09 , 大阪大学大学院国際公共政策研究科 , オオサカ ダイガク ダイガクイン コクサイ コウキョウ セイサク ケンキュウカ
In Honor of Prof. Toshitaka TAKEUCHI
From 2016 to 2017, relations between the US, China and Taiwan underwent a period of transition with the election of new leaders. Since May 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen assumed the position of Taiwan’s leader, the relationship between China and Taiwan has once again become strained, namely due to their opposing stances on the so-called “1992 Consensus.” This disagreement was further amplified by the conflicting remarks of Donald Trump, who, prior to his inauguration had raised questions about the “One China” policy, and yet gave reassurance to Xi Jinping of US acknowledgement of the policy in their first phone call. Official US policy regarding China, however, as yet remains unclear. This article utilizes strategic triangle theory to analyze the new power dynamics between the US, China and Taiwan. Strategic triangle theory and its variations are useful methods in which to analyze the interactions between the three actors. In reviewing the recent political exchanges between the US, China and Taiwan, this paper concludes that the US and China have a vested interest in seeking amicable relations, though the position of Taiwan remains ever more problematic, in a hypothesis that is rooted in the idea that each actor stands to benefit from rational decision-making.