Technical Report Smeed’s Law and the Role of Hospitals in Modeling Fatalities and Traffic Accidents

Lu, Yueh-Tzu  ,  Fukushige, Mototsugu

17-22pp.1 - 23 , 2017-07 , Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) Osaka University
We applied Smeed’s Law to Japanese prefectural data from between 1988 and 2016. We found that the coefficient for the number of vehicles was stable over the estimation period, but that the constant term decreased gradually. We decomposed fatalities per capita into fatalities per accidents and accidents per capita, and applied regression equations to the data. We conclude the following from this study. First, the relationship between fatalities per capita and the number of registered vehicles per capita was stable, which is consistent with Smeed’s Law. Second, the effects of technological advances have changed the estimated coefficients for time dummies. The role of hospitals may be difficult to incorporate into Smeed’s Law because of the complicated relationship between the distance to hospital and fatalities per capita.

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