Departmental Bulletin Paper The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam : Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

Le, Thuan Dong  ,  Ishida, Miki

There has been many researchers studied the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in Vietnam, when it's real exchange rate began appreciating in 2003. However, empirical studies examining the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are limited. Most studies focus on only the long-run relationship; the short-run effect of exchange rate on trade balance has not been properly explored. This paper aims to fill this gap by measuring the effects of exchange rate on trade balance in the long run and short run, applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration with an error correction model (ECM) to explore the long-run and short-run relationships. The empirical analysis shows that there is evidence of J-curve only in Japan, Malaysia and Thailand models, and Marshall-Lerner condition holds in both aggregate model and disaggregate models except Singapore model.
The results in this paper were represented in the 52nd annual meeting of the Japan Section of the Regional Society Association International held at Okayama University, October 2015.

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