Journal Article <論文・報告>四万十帯における過去の地震発生帯と来るべき南海地震発生時期の予測

西澤, 貴志

1pp.48 - 53 , 2016-03 , 京都大学学際融合教育研究推進センター高大接続科学教育ユニット
理学 地球惑星科学
The basement rock in the southern part of Tokushima Prefecture, the so-called Shimanto belt, is composed mainly of an accretionary complex deposited on the trench from the Cretaceous to the Paleogene Periods. In recent years, the existence of pseudotachylyte, a particular type of rock formed as a result of frictional heat during fault movements, has been reported in the geological faults of the Shimanto belt. A marine terrace in the vicinity of Muroto Cape in the southeastern part of Kochi Prefecture is thought to have been formed by past earthquake activity. Furthermore, by using the proportional relationship between the interval of two successive earthquakes and the amount of coseismic uplift caused by the preceding earthquake observed in the harbor, a time-predictable model, which forecasts the occurrence of the next earthquake (1), has been proposed. In this study, we review the recent progress of geological studies in the Mugi Mélange in the southern part of Tokushima Prefecture. We also introduce a method of forecasting the anticipated Nankai Earthquake by utilizing data from land uplifts due to the last three earthquakes recorded in Murotsu Harbor.

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