What is the Major Source of Business Cycles : Spillovers from Land Prices, Investment Shocks, or Anything Else?What is the Major Source of Business Cycles : Spillovers from Land Prices, Investment Shocks, or Anything Else?
20 , 2018-03 , Faculty of Economics and Business, Hokkaido University
Some recent studies argue that spillovers from land prices into the aggregate economy are the crucial drivers of business cycles. Other studies stress the importance of investment shocks at business cycle frequencies. This study evaluates these two strands of the literature in a single unified framework by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint on investment financing. The results are twofold: (i) when these features are combined, neither shocks that drives most of land-price fluctuations nor investment shocks are the primary source of U.S. business cycles; and (ii) technology shocks play an important role in business cycles.