Journal Article Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017

Tsuzuki, Shinya  ,  Lee, Hyojung  ,  Miura, Fuminari  ,  Chan, Yat Hin  ,  Jung, Sung-mok  ,  Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R  ,  Nishiura, Hiroshi

22 ( 46 )  , p.17-00710 , 2017-11-16 , European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.

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