||Projecting the response of the Greenland ice sheet
to future climate change with the ice sheet
Greve, Ralf ,
Calov, ReinhardHerzfeld, Ute C.
129 , 2017-03-31 , 低温科学第75巻編集委員会
Numerical modelling has become established as an important tool for understanding ice sheet
dynamics in general, and in particular for assessing the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets to future sea level change under global warming conditions. In this paper, we review related
work carried out with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets).
As part of a group of eight models, it was applied to a set of standardised experiments for the
Greenland ice sheet defined by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) initiative. A
main finding of SeaRISE was that, if climate change continues unabatedly, the ice sheet may
experience a significant decay over the next centuries. However, the spread of results across
different models was very large, mainly because of differences in the applied initialisation methods and
surface mass balance schemes. Therefore, the new initiative ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Modeling
Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) was launched. An early sub-project is InitMIP-Greenland, within
which we showed that two different initialisations computed with SICOPOLIS lead indeed to large
differences in the simulated response to schematic future climate scenarios. Further work within
ISMIP6 will thus focus on improved initialisation techniques. Based on this, refined future climate
simulations for the Greenland ice sheet, driven by forcings derived from AOGCM (atmosphere-ocean
general circulation model) simulations, will be carried out. The goal of ISMIP6 is to provide
significantly improved estimates of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in the coming years.