||Sustainable forest management and bioenergy expansion : A multi-scale approach from global to local
持続可能な森林管理とバイオマスエネルギーの拡大 : 全球から地域までの多規模アプローチ
Integrated assessment modeling scenarios in which global warming is limited to 2°C above pre-industrial level by the end of this century expect bioenergy to contribute between 15-245 Exajoules per year to the global energy portfolio by 2050 excluding traditional bioenergy. Such scenarios often include large-scale deployment of bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as a possibility to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Substantial impact on direct and indirect land use change is to be expected. This thesis examines biomass feedstock potentials and assess bioenergy expansion at global, regional and local scales. For the global level it is argued that only the integration of multi-level assessments using top-down and bottom up approaches will help identifying realistic bioenergy potentials at high geographic resolutions. While the demand for bioenergy from Integrated Assessment Models can serve as a target, the combination of biophysical and economic land use models can help breaking this down into realizable and sustainable potentials on the ground. This thesis goes all the way from global bioenergy feedstock assessment under different protection and conservation scenarios to a conservative and environmentally sound assessment of bioenergy potentials on regional levels. The regional analyis concentrates on Korea and Japan. Finally, at the local level, the public opinion of rural town citizens in Japan with respect to sustainable forest management, forest certification and forest-based bioenergy are investigated. The motivation behind this is to examine to which extent success strategies from Austria can be replicated in Japan, which is similar to Austria in terms of forest and geographical situation. At the global level, this thesis finds that 160 million hectares of forest might be lost by 2050 for increased energy production if no sustainability safeguards like REDD policies will be applied. For the local level, the thesis states that there is a large bioenergy potential for Korea and Japan, even though the BECCS potentials seem to be limited under the presented methodologies. For the local level, the thesis concludes that sustainable forest management can also be an entry point for a bioenergy-driven rural revitalization strategy. Forest owners in rural Japanese towns show good knowledge on forest certification. Sustainable forest management based on forest certification ensures that economic and environmental goals can be achieved in unison. Especially, investment in forest infrastructure is among the main elements to ensure competitive harvesting costs in mountainous areas of Japan. It is concluded that different bottom-up measures including capacity building and awareness raising need to be developed.
Hokkaido University（北海道大学）. 博士(環境科学)