Departmental Bulletin Paper 農家数規模別にみた農業集落における農家数の規定要因 : 分位点回帰モデルによるアプローチ
Factors affecting the number of farm househelds in rural communities : A quantile count regression approach

石田, 泰浩  ,  中谷, 朋昭  ,  高山, 太輔

70pp.17 - 24 , 2015-11-30 , 北海道大学大学院農学研究院
ISSN:0385-5961
NCID:AN0020151X
Description
Problems such as a decline in the farmer population, population aging, and urbanization have been progressing in rural communities. In small rural communities with few farms, small farms play an important role in cummunity sustenance and functionality. Therefore, a policy that helps sustain the current number of farms, including small farms, in rural communities in necessary. Simultaneously, Japan's agricultural sector has been urged to reduce small farms, and to consolidate farms to increase competitiveness. This is at odds with the need to maintain rural community functioning and domestic agricultural production. Thus, to crease better policies, it is nesessary to analyze the relationship between the local characteristics of rural communities and farm termination. Acconrdingly, we analyzed the factors affecting the number of farm households in Hokkaido using rural community card date in a quantile count regression model. The results show that age diversity in farm household populations and the proportion of the population aged between 60 and 64 has large positive and negative effects, respectively, on the changes in the number of farm households over all percentiles. Rice farming and the existence of successors have significant positive effects only at the 5th, 25th, and 50th percentiles.
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