Departmental Bulletin Paper 流行現象の減衰に関する数理的考察 : 流行はどのように減衰するか : 音楽CD に関して
Mathematic Study about the Decrement of the Trendy Phenomenon : How does the Fashion Damp? : About Music CD

深見, 龍太郎

28pp.13 - 19 , 2018-03-20 , 九州大学大学院芸術工学研究院
Though many people act freely, the trend affects people and forms a big tendency and flow in our society. If we could analyze this trend mathematically, it could be widely used and become an effective way to predict the social and economic phenomenon. In the previous studies, there are many reports that surveyed a tendency and the sales change for one single music or movie. However, there are few which analyze about an annual change or multiple phenomena comprehensively. In this study, we analyzed a shift in trend of the music songs (single CD) sales from 1990 through 2002. First, we investigated a share of the Top10 music and a one-year sales change. Then, the sales shift of every two years from 1990 was examined. As a result, we found that most of the single CD sales increased to maximum in first week, and immediately decreased exponentially. Furthermore, we discovered that the reduction rate increased year by year and the decline of each music sales did not depend on other music. In conclusion, although people bought CDs by their own will, fashion of many hit songs showed the similar exponential diminution.

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